In my opinion, the only people who will be getting rich off of the Facebook IPO are people who already have shares of stock in the company, pre-sale. Everyone else: avoid it for a long time.
· Early adopters beware. Tech IPOs have been notorious for jumping up initially and then crashing down to a price lower than the initial IPO.
· I don’t like Facebook as a product. The interface has always been clunky and it won’t be long before the new “timeline” feature automatically replaces that photo of you puking on a clown with an ad for a fabric cleaner. Puke.
· Its prospects for growth are suspect at best. Facebook has nearly a billion people already signed up. But how many more of the 6+ billion people on earth really have access to the Internet? Yes, you could say there’s 80% of the market untapped, but I question how many people will still sign up if they haven’t already.
· Their ad model sucks. I have never clicked on a Facebook ad and I doubt many of my friends have either. Sure, a few suckers might be “fans” of brands, but those brands are probably providing some sort of value. A crappy banner ad … not so valuable to me, the consumer.
· What, exactly, do they produce? I bought some shares of Home Depot for $21 and they are now worth close to $45. Why? Because people in civilized countries will always have a need for raw building materials. Up-to-the-minute updates from my narcissistic friends*? Not so essential.
· MySpace. Just sayin’.
*You know who you are, don’t you?